[1]由淑萍,徐月贞,陶 宁,等.Framingham及其改良模型在新疆牧区哈萨克族牧民中的应用研究[J].医学信息,2021,34(11):1-4，8.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2021.11.001]
　YOU Shu-ping,XU Yue-zhen,TAO Ning,et al.Application of Framingham and Its Modified Model in Kazakh Herders in Xinjiang Pastoral Area[J].Medical Information,2021,34(11):1-4，8.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2021.11.001]
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Framingham及其改良模型在新疆牧区哈萨克族牧民中的应用研究()
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医学信息[ISSN:1006-1959/CN:61-1278/R]

卷:
34卷
期数:
2021年11期
页码:
1-4，8
栏目:
出版日期:
2021-06-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Application of Framingham and Its Modified Model in Kazakh Herders in Xinjiang Pastoral Area
文章编号:
1006-1959（2021）11-0001-05
作者:
由淑萍; 徐月贞; 陶 宁; 等
（1.新疆医科大学护理学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011； 2.新疆医科大学公共卫生学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011； 3.新疆医科大学工程学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011； 4.新疆医科大学第一附属医院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011； 5.乌鲁木齐县水西沟卫生院体检中心，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000）
Author(s):
YOU Shu-ping; XU Yue-zhen; TAO Ning; et al.
(1.School of Nursing,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China; 2.School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China; 3.College of Engineering,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China; 4.The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China; 5.Physical Examination Center of Shuixigou Health Center,Urumqi 830000,Xinjiang,China)
关键词:
牧民; 高血压; Framingham模型; 疾病预测
Keywords:
Herders; Hypertension; Framingham model; Morbidity prediction
分类号:
R544.1
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2021.11.001
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的 运用Framingham模型及其改良模型预测新疆南山牧区哈萨克族牧民高血压发病情况，分析模型在该人群中的适宜性。方法 于2008年~2010年采用方便整群抽样法选取乌鲁木齐南山牧区6个乡镇≥18岁哈萨克族牧民5327人，于2014年~2018年进行随访，每2年随访1次，共随访3次，以高血压为随访结局；采用Framingham模型预测高血压的发病率与实际发病率进行比较，采用受试者工作特征曲线下面积和Hosmer-Lemeshow ?字2检验，验证模型的应用效果。结果 本队列共随访新发高血压1985人，高血压累积发病率为37.26%；Framingham模型和改良模型高血压发病预测曲线下面积分别为0.666（95%CI：0.653，0.679）和0.797（95%CI：0.786，0.808）；Hosmer-Lemeshow?字2检验值分别为423.54（P＜0.05）和18.5（P＞0.05）；改良模型预测高血压发病危险分层和高血压新发病例实际分布显示：改良模型预测高危人群1866人；实际发病人数1985人中1592人为高危人群。结论 Framingham模型低估了新疆南山牧区哈萨克族牧民高血压的发病风险，改良模型更适合于该地区人群的高血压风险预测。
Abstract:
Objective To use the Framingham model and its modified model to predict the incidence of hypertension among Kazakh herders in the Nanshan pastoral area of Xinjiang, and to analyze the suitability of the model in this population.Methods From 2008 to 2010, a convenient cluster sampling method was used to select 5,327 Kazakh herders from 6 townships in the Nanshan pastoral area of Urumqi.Follow up from 2014 to 2018, once every 2 years, a total of 3 follow-ups, with hypertension as the follow-up outcome;The Framingham model was used to predict the incidence of hypertension and the actual incidence was compared, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow ?字2 test were used to verify the application effect of the model.Results A total of 1985 new-onset hypertension were followed up in this cohort, and the cumulative incidence of hypertension was 37.26%;The area under the prediction curve of the Framingham model and the modified model of hypertension were 0.666 (95%CI: 0.653, 0.679) and 0.797 (95%CI: 0.786, 0.808) respectively;Hosmer-Lemeshow?字2 test values were 423.54 (P＜0.05) and 18.5 (P＞0.05);The modified model predicts the risk stratification of hypertension and the actual distribution of new cases of hypertension showed that the modified model predicts 1866 high-risk groups;Among the actual number of 1985, 1592 were high-risk groups.Conclusion The Framingham model underestimated the risk of hypertension among Kazakh herders in the Nanshan pastoral area of Xinjiang, and the modified model is more suitable for predicting the risk of hypertension in the population in this area.

参考文献/References:

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更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01