[1]卓小康,郭振友.ARIMA模型和BP神经网络模型在广西老年人艾滋病发病率预测中的应用[J].医学信息,2022,35(03):65-68.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2022.03.016]
　ZHUO Xiao-kang,GUO Zhen-you.Application of ARIMA Model and BP Neural Network Model in Predicting the Incidence of AIDSin the Elderly in Guangxi[J].Medical Information,2022,35(03):65-68.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2022.03.016]
点击复制

ARIMA模型和BP神经网络模型在广西老年人艾滋病发病率预测中的应用()
分享到：

医学信息[ISSN:1006-1959/CN:61-1278/R]

卷:
35卷
期数:
2022年03期
页码:
65-68
栏目:
论著
出版日期:
2022-02-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Application of ARIMA Model and BP Neural Network Model in Predicting the Incidence of AIDSin the Elderly in Guangxi
文章编号:
1006-1959（2022）03-0065-04
作者:
卓小康; 郭振友
桂林医学院人文与管理学院，广西 桂林 541000
Author(s):
ZHUO Xiao-kang; GUO Zhen-you
School of Humanities and Management,Guilin Medical University,Guilin 541000,Guangxi,China
关键词:
艾滋病; ARIMA模型; BP神经网络模型
Keywords:
AIDS; ARIMA model; BP neural network model
分类号:
R512.91
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2022.03.016
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的 分析ARIMA模型和BP神经网络模型预测广西老年人艾滋病发病率的效果。方法 将2005-2016年广西老年人艾滋病月发病率数据作为训练集，2017年广西老年人艾滋病月发病率数据作为测试集，训练集用于训练、建模和拟合最优ARIMA模型和最优BP神经网络模型，测试集用于测试两者的建模和预测效果。结果 与传统的ARIMA（2，1，2）（2，0，0）12模型相比，LM算法3-9-1结构的BP神经网络模型在预测艾滋病月发病率方面更具优势，该模型的均方误差为0.0822、平均绝对误差为0.2352、平均绝对误差百分比为0.1510%。结论 LM算法3-9-1结构的BP神经网络模型更适用于广西老年人艾滋病月发病率预测，误差小，精度高。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the effect of ARIMA model and BP neural network model on predicting the incidence of AIDS in the elderly in Guangxi.Methods The 2005-2016 Guangxi elderly AIDS monthly incidence data were used as the training set, and the 2017 Guangxi elderly AIDS monthly incidence data were used as the test set. The training set was used to train, model, and fit the optimal ARIMA model and the optimal BP neural network model, the test set is used to test the modeling and prediction effects of both.Results Compared with the traditional ARIMA(2,1,2)(2,0,0)12 model, the BP neural network model with the LM algorithm 3-9-1 structure had more advantages in predicting the monthly incidence of AIDS. The mean square error of this model was 0.0822, the average relative error of this model was 0.2352, and the average absolute error percentage of this model was 0.1510%.Conclusion The BP neural network model with the 3-9-1 structure of the LM algorithm is more suitable for predicting the monthly incidence of AIDS in the elderly in Guangxi, with small errors and high accuracy.

参考文献/References:

[1]黄玉满,覃珏,万孝玲,等.广西某县农村中老年人群艾滋病知晓及性行为情况分析[J].中国健康教育,2019,35(11):1002-1006.[2]苏华安,王立华,张冬合,等.广东省江门市2000-2017年老年HIV/AIDS病例流行病学特征[J].中国热带医学,2020,20(1):39-42. [3]邱羽琪,汤晓斌,李浩,等.广西南宁50岁及以上老年人感染艾滋病危险因素分析[J].中国健康教育,2017,33(5):439-443. [4]王楚雯,胡颖,侯颖.广西壮族自治区艾滋病模型及预测分析[J].检验检疫学刊,2020,30(2):6-9.[5]王燕.时间序列分析基于R[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2015.[6]时雨,秦秋莉.阴阳对算法优化BP神经网络模型对艾滋病报告率的预测[J].中国艾滋病性病,2021,27(1):109-112.[7]陈明.MATLAB神经网络原理与实例精解[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2013.[8]杨文姣,肖俊玲,丁国武.ARIMA模型和BP神经网络模型在甘肃省结核病发病率预测中的应用[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2019,23(6):728-731.[9]陈婷.ARIMA模型和BP神经网络模型在艾滋病发病率预测应用中的比较研究[D].南宁:广西医科大学,2015.[10]刘慧,林有坤,覃霞,等.广西某综合医院住院HIV/AIDS患者的皮肤黏膜表现和临床流行病学特征的回顾性分析[J].临床皮肤科杂志,2016,45(12):828-831. [11]王淑霞,李明阳,刘希波,等.ARIMA模型在全国艾滋病新发现病例数预测中的可行性研究[J].中国艾滋病性病,2020,26(7):705-708.[12]罗莉,许骏,胡荣,等.应用EPP/Spectrum模型估计与预测武汉市成人艾滋病疫情[J].公共卫生与预防医学,2020,31(5):45-48.[13]郭玉秀.2004-2016年我国艾滋病流行特征分析及月发病率预测研究[D].合肥:安徽医科大学,2019.[14]程燕,刘如春,谢红卫.ARIMA模型与灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在长沙市艾滋病发病率预测中的效果比较[J].职业与健康,2017,33(22):3091-3094.[15]孙锦峰,耿云亮,郭奕瑞,等.Elman神经网络与ARIMA模型对流感发病率预测效果的比较[J].郑州大学学报(医学版),2013,48(5):584-587.[16]李顺勇,李可心.ARIMA和Prophet模型在艾滋病发病预测中的应用[J].河南科学,2020,38(9):1387-1393.[17]陈远方,张熳,王小莉,等.ARIMA模型和BP神经网络模型在我国乙型肝炎发病预测中的应用[J].江苏预防医学,2015,26(3):23-26.[18]杨尧,李功权.中国近年艾滋病空间分布及影响因素分析[J].中国艾滋病性病,2018,24(12):1208-1211.[19]罗佳伟,张强,杨书.基于ARIMA-BPNN的组合模型在重庆市艾滋病发现人数预测中的应用[J].预防医学情报杂志,2018,34(3):247-250.[20]易鹏.基于ARIMA-BP模型的全国艾滋病发病率预测[D].重庆:西南大学,2020.

相似文献/References:

[1]李 玮,周 毅,黄珊子,等.珠海市2016年艾滋病疫情特征分析[J].医学信息,2018,31(03):123.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2018.03.042]
　LI Wei,ZHOU Yi,HUANG Shan-zi,et al.Analysis of Epidemic Characteristics of AIDS in Zhuhai City in 2016[J].Medical Information,2018,31(03):123.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2018.03.042]
[2]季 玮.人性化护理对艾滋病患者临床效果的相关性研究[J].医学信息,2018,31(03):174.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2018.03.065]
　JI Wei.Study on the Correlation between Humanized Nursing and Clinical Effect of AIDS Patients[J].Medical Information,2018,31(03):174.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2018.03.065]
[3]杨 凯.高效抗逆转录病毒治疗艾滋病的临床疗效观察[J].医学信息,2018,31(08):178.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2018.08.065]
　YANG Kai.Clinical Observation on the Effect of Highly Effective Antiretroviral Therapy on AIDS[J].Medical Information,2018,31(03):178.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2018.08.065]
[4]梁丽俊,刘原杰,张绿浪.艾灸神阙穴治疗艾滋病脾虚型腹泻理论基础[J].医学信息,2018,31(12):143.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2018.12.045]
[5]程 栋,徐 璐,刘 佳,等.新乡市2012~2015年新报告艾滋病病毒感染者中新发感染情况分析[J].医学信息,2019,32(02):143.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2019.02.041]
　CHENG Dong,XU Lu,LIU Jia,et al.New Report on New Infections among HIV-infected People in Xinxiang City from 2012 to 2015[J].Medical Information,2019,32(03):143.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2019.02.041]
[6]汪 芬,涂志斌.高职院校学生对艾滋病防治知识了解情况及其影响因素分析[J].医学信息,2018,31(24):109.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2018.24.031]
　WANG Fen,TU Zhi-bin.Analysis of Students' Knowledge of AIDS Prevention and Control and Its Influencing Factors in Higher Vocational Colleges[J].Medical Information,2018,31(03):109.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2018.24.031]
[7]雷月坤,刘玲霞,惠婉芮,等.医学生对艾滋病及性教育的认知调查研究[J].医学信息,2019,32(01):134.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2019.01.041]
　LEI Yue-kun,LIU Ling-xia,HUI Wan-rui,et al.Medical Students' Cognition Research on AIDS and Sex Education[J].Medical Information,2019,32(03):134.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2019.01.041]
[8]谢欣你,陆婉思,杨小燕,等.广东某高职院校不同艾滋病健康教育模式效果对比[J].医学信息,2019,32(17):129.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2019.17.042]
　XIE Xin-ni,LU Wan-si,YANG Xiao-yan,et al.Comparison of Different AIDS Health Education Models in A Higher Vocational College in Guangdong[J].Medical Information,2019,32(03):129.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2019.17.042]
[9]沈子月,杨秋英,王 洁,等.艾滋病临床用药分析[J].医学信息,2019,32(12):147.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2019.12.048]
　SHEN Zi-yue,YANG Qiu-ying,WANG Jie,et al.AIDS Clinical Drug Analysis[J].Medical Information,2019,32(03):147.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2019.12.048]
[10]钱 云.南通市某传染病医院艾滋病流行病学特征分析[J].医学信息,2019,32(24):130.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2019.24.046]
　QIAN Yun.Epidemiological Characteristics of AIDS in an Infectious Disease Hospital in Nantong[J].Medical Information,2019,32(03):130.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2019.24.046]
[11]尤佳豪,张蓓蓓,丁 勇.ARIMA季节模型在我国艾滋病发病预测中的应用[J].医学信息,2021,34(17):1.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2021.17.001]
　YOU Jia-hao,ZHANG Bei-bei,DING Yong.Application of ARIMA Seasonal Model in Predicting the Incidence of AIDS in China[J].Medical Information,2021,34(03):1.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2021.17.001]

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01