[1]尤佳豪,张蓓蓓,丁 勇.ARIMA季节模型在我国艾滋病发病预测中的应用[J].医学信息,2021,34(17):1-3.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2021.17.001]
　YOU Jia-hao,ZHANG Bei-bei,DING Yong.Application of ARIMA Seasonal Model in Predicting the Incidence of AIDS in China[J].Medical Information,2021,34(17):1-3.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2021.17.001]
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ARIMA季节模型在我国艾滋病发病预测中的应用()
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医学信息[ISSN:1006-1959/CN:61-1278/R]

卷:
34卷
期数:
2021年17期
页码:
1-3
栏目:
出版日期:
2021-09-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Application of ARIMA Seasonal Model in Predicting the Incidence of AIDS in China
文章编号:
1006-1959（2021）17-0001-03
作者:
尤佳豪; 张蓓蓓; 丁 勇
（南京医科大学康达学院医学信息工程教研室，江苏 连云港 222000）
Author(s):
YOU Jia-hao; ZHANG Bei-bei; DING Yong
(Department of Medical Information Engineering,Kangda College,Nanjing Medical University,Lianyungang 222000,Jiangsu,China)
关键词:
ARIMA模型; 艾滋病; 疾病预测
Keywords:
ARIMA model; AIDS; Disease prediction
分类号:
R512.91
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1006-1959.2021.17.001
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的 探讨适合用于预测我国艾滋病月发病人数的模型，为艾滋病的预防提供参考。方法 收集2006年1月-2018年12月全国艾滋病月发病数资料，建立ARIMA季节模型，对2019年1月-6月艾滋病月发病数评估预测效果。结果 艾滋病月发病数呈明显季节性特征，ARIMA（1，1，2）（0，1，1）12模型较好地拟合了既往艾滋病的实际发病序列，拟合优度0.902，该模型的预测结果平均相对误差率为 10.10%，有较好的预测效果。结论 ARIMA模型能够较好地拟合并预测我国艾滋病的月发病人数，为艾滋病的防控提供定量分析的依据。
Abstract:
Objective To explore a model suitable for predicting the monthly incidence of AIDS in China, and to provide references for the prevention of AIDS.Methods Data on the monthly incidence of AIDS in China from January 2006 to December 2018 were collected, and an ARIMA seasonal model was established to evaluate the prediction effect of the monthly incidence of AIDS from January to June 2019.Results The monthly incidence of AIDS showed obvious seasonal characteristics. The ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)12 model fitted the actual incidence sequence of previous AIDS well with a goodness of fit of 0.902.The average relative error rate of the prediction results of this model was 10.10%, which had a good prediction effect. Conclusion The ARIMA model can better fit and predict the monthly number of AIDS cases in China, and provide a quantitative analysis basis for AIDS prevention and control.

参考文献/References:

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更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01